Medina County Dem News

(Medina County Democratic Action Committee)

MCDAC Newsletter
January 18, 2008
Joyce V. Kimbler,
Editor

Letters to the Editor

Broadway Comes To Iowa

The snow dust has settled in Iowa and the pundits are in retrospect. The mainstream media will now inform us how it happened that an underfunded Mike Huckabee beat the Republican front runners and their media favorite, Hillary Clinton placed third in the corn-belt caucus.

Democrats came out to vote in unprecedented numbers almost doubling past presidential primaries. Those numbers are telling. Democrats are hungry for change, not just a new path for our country, but a new path for the Democratic Party. Hillary offered Democrats a repackaged move to the middle – shades of a Democratic party in the minority ala Bill Clinton White House tenure. Progressives Barak Obama and John Edwards gave Iowans a vision of the new Democratic Party, one that will reestablish our international role as the light on the hill, the courage to fight the corporate take over of our democracy, and what we must do to rebuild our middle class.

The Republican turnout was underwhelming. Huckabee was able to win by playing to what has become the base of the Republican Party in recent years – the religious right, proving there are still enough believers who have not lost faith in the GOP.

The question is; Can Huckabee play on off-Broadway, or better put – to Independent voters? It is hard to fathom that free-thinking Independent voters, those who will decide our next president, duped a second time into believing the Republican Party speaks to their values.

There always comes a time on Broadway to shut the theatre doors and write a new musical - and hire different actors.

Patrick J Carano
Summit County

Medina County Democratic News

Medina County Dem Kathie Jones Chosen as John Edwards Delegate

At the 16Th Congressional District caucus held on January 3, 2008, Medina County Dem Kathie Jones of Sharon Township was chosen as a female delegate for John Edwards. This is the second time that Kathie has been selected as a delegate for a presidential candidate at a 16Th. District caucus. Kathie's selection means that three Medina County Democratic women were chosen as delegates at the 16Th. Congressional District caucus. Congratulations to all those Medina County Dems!

Medina County Dem Amanda Armstrong Selected As Obama Delegate

Amanda Armstrong, who grew up in Seville and is President of the Medina County Young Democrats, was selected as the third female delegate for the Barack Obama campaign. This brings to four the number of Medina County Dems selected as potential delegates at the 13Th and 16Th Congressional District caucuses held on January 3, 2008. All were women. Two were for Bill Richardson, one was for John Edwards, and one was for Barack Obama.

Ohio Democratic News

Lakewood, Ohio Democratic Club Sponsoring Dem Nomination Straw Vote

Would your organization be willing to cosponsor an Ohio Democratic Presidential Straw Poll this Jan 31? The Lakewood Democratic Club has secured a time and location and would like to include as many Northeast Ohio Democrats as possible. We hope you can team up with us to put on Northeast Ohio's first-ever (to our knowledge) straw poll!

Why should Iowa and New Hampshire have all the fun? It’s our turn to have our say! This event will give Ohio Democrats the chance to cast an early vote for their choice for the Democratic Presidential Nominee BEFORE Super Duper Tuesday (Feb. 5). The winner of the straw poll will be publicly announced to let the media know who Ohioans want for president.

By cosponsoring, you agree to:

Lend your name to the event
Publicize the event to your members
Ask your members if they can volunteer to run the even (e.g. set up, break down, check in table, count votes, etc.)
There is no cost to your organization.
Eligibility To Vote: Any 18+ year old Ohio resident may cast one vote for the cost of $5 (funds defray cost of event). Voters must be physically present; no proxy voting. Non-registered persons can vote in the straw poll, then register to vote in the official March 4 primary
DEADLINE: If you can cosponsor, please let us know by Sun, Jan 13 so we can include you on the flier and still have time to publicize the event. (Preliminary flier attached.)

Sincerely,

Tom Bullock
Lakewood Democratic Club, 1st Vice President
216-337-1318


2008 Presidential Campaign

Democrats Out Voting Republicans in Primaries

This is a very interesting statistic, and one that is not good for the GOP. So far, there have been two contested Republican primaries and one contested Republican caucus where individual votes were counted. Those are Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan. In those three contests, according to CNN's Election Central, the total number of Republicans votes was 867,136.

On the Democratic side, there has been two contests where individual votes were counted Those were New Hampshire and Michigan. In Iowa the Democratic Party reported the number of delegates that each candidate won at the district level, but does not release individual votes. In those two contests the total number of Democratic votes was 877,082. In other words, the total number of Democratic voters in two races exceeded the number of Republican voters in three races. Not only was the total bigger, but in Michigan Obama and Edwards weren't on the ballot and Clinton didn't campaign.

Quite frankly these figures indicate that rank and file Republicans don't have the saem enthusiam and intensity that rank and file Democrats have about the 2008 elections. Six years of Bush, of a war that seems neverending, of budget deficits, of incompetence. of constitutional violations, have weakened the Republican Party. Couldn't have happened to a better group of people.

Newsweek Cover Story on Hillary Clinton

Newsweek is following up its cover story on Barack Obama with a cover story on Hillary Clinton. It is a very interesting article. It contends that a mistake the HRC campaign made was assuming that she was known by voters. It also contends that both HRC and her advisers have learned that she is not that well known and that they have to allow the public to see a more complete picture of her.

When Clinton ran in New York for the US Senate she adopted a strategy of going everywhere to dispel the images that voters had of her. It worked in that she was able to do well enough in upstate New York to counter the Republican vote in the suburbs of New York City. Doing that made sure that the big Democratic vote out of New York City was sufficient to elect her. She followed the same campaign strategy that Charles Schumer had used in 1998.

The problem, though, is the size of the United States makes it hard to do that on a nationwide basis, especially if your campaign is distracted by charges of racism made by other Democrats. The question is can you go around the media and get enough voters to change their opinions about you? Opinions that have been formed not on personal experience by on the basis of media stories.

Well, we are about to see if HRC can pull it off. On the one hand she is an incredibly polarizing figure in American politics. On the other hand she is a very intelligent and very hard working woman. Only a fool would count her out, as the media found out last Tuesday in New Hampshire.

CNN Poll Shows Democrats Leading Republicans in White House Race

CNN has a new poll out that shows both Obama and Clinton leading all Republicans including John McCain, although McCain gives each of them the toughest race. Here are some figures from the polls:

Obama 56%, Guiliani 40%
Obama 59%, Romney 37%
Obama 49%, McCain 48%
Obama 58%, Huckabee 39%

Clinton 55%, Guiliani 42%
Clinton 58%, Romney 40%
Clinton 50%, McCain 49%
Clinton 56%, Huckabee 42%

Interestingly, all Republicans run 1% to 3% better against Clinton than against Obama. Obama gets a bigger percentage against Guiliani, Romney, and Huckabee, but not against McCain. Clinton has the highest "would definitely vote for" rating at 37%, but ties with McCain on the would "definitely not vote for rating" at 43%. Obama is at 30% and 38% in both categories respectively. According to this poll, over 50% of those polled said that would definitely not vote for Giuliani, Romney or Huckabee. Hopefully one of those three will get the Republican nomination.

Where Do Edward Supporters Go?

Those of us supporting John Edwards for President may soon have to face the fact that he is not going to be the Democratic nominee. Sooner or later in politics you have to win elections. So, assuming that Edwards is out, where does his support go?

The AP ran a story dated January 12, 2008 on that very issue. It is a very interesting article. Here's one quote from the article that illustrates why John Edwards is important to the Democratic Party:

Edwards draws much of his support from people over 50 and those without a college education, the survey found. His voters are more likely to be men than women, and a third are evangelical Christians — a much larger share than among Clinton or Obama voters.

The loss of such voters has been a problem for the Democratic Party. White men went for Bush over Kerry by a margin of 62% to 37%. Educationally, the only two groups that went for Kerry over Bush were those without high school diplomas, (50% to 49%) and those with post-graduate degrees, (55% to 44%). The only age group that Kerry carried were voters 18-29. In that age group Kerry got 54% and Bush got 45%. Kerry lost both Catholic and Protestant voters, but he really got killed among white, evangelical voters. He lost those voters by a 78% to 21% margin.(All of these figures are from the 2004 CNN exit poll.)

Given the fact that Kerry won 17 states and only lost the popular vote by approximately 3%, it is easy to see that Democrats would only have to do a little better with the above groups to win the presidency. The question becomes what Democratic candidate, other than Edwards, can get more votes out of the above groups than Kerry got.

It is a tough decision to make. This might be one reason why, according to the AP article, a poll taken in December showed that Edwards supporters were split evenly between Obama and Clinton when Edwards was removed from the equation. Here is a quote from the article:

A mid-December survey of voters nationally conducted for the AP and Yahoo News found that Edwards supporters split about evenly between Clinton and Obama when asked which candidate would be their second choice. Clinton and Obama each were the second choices of about 27 percent of Edwards supporters. Another 28 percent were unsure who would be their second choice, and the rest were thinly scattered among other candidates.

By the way, Edwards supporters nationwide amount to about 14% to 20% of the Democratic vote, according to national polls. In Medina County, where MCDAC is based, there are 16,776 Democratic voters. If Medina County reflects the nationwide average, then there would be approximately 2348 to 3355 Edwards supporters among Medina County Democrats. There could be more, however, since in the 2004 Democratic primary in Ohio, Edwards got 31.8% of the vote. Obviously, in a close election between Obama and Clinton, Edwards supporters could be a big factor.

So, where do Edwards supporters go? Both Clinton and Obama have a lot to recommend them. Obama is a new face, doesn't have the baggage of the whole Clinton-Lewinsky controversy, and is a very inspirational speaker. Clinton is experienced in the ways of Washington, has plenty of grit, can both take and deliver a punch, and has a great command of policy. My guess, though, for what it is worth, is that Obama will do a slightly better job of emotionally connecting with former Edwards supporters if Edwards is not a viable candidate by the time of the Ohio primary on March 4th, 2008.

Articles of General Interest

Congressional Dems Introduce Bill to Prevent Bush From Signing Long-Term Agreement Without Congressional Approval

On January 13, 2008, we published an entry in which we said that Democrats need to introduce legislation prohibiting Bush from entering agreements with the Iraqi government that continue beyond the end of his presidency. Imagine our delight, and to be honest, also our chagrin, when we found out that Congressional Democrats have done, and are doing, just that. One bill has been introduced by Senator Hillary Clinton in the Senate and another bill will be introduced by Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT).

Rep. DeLauro will introduce the Iraq Strategic Agreement Review Act of 2008, which would require the administration to consult with Congress on the agreement and withhold funds for the agreement if it did not come in the form of a formal treaty. "We simply cannot allow the Administration to finalize an agreement that could lead to permanent bases in Iraq and other major economic and political commitments without Congressional consultations and approval," she says in a statement on the bill.

This is only the first step, however. The second step is to big it a political issue when the Republicans bottle it up in the Senate or Bush vetoes it and the Republicans don't provide enough votes to override his veto. What Democrats need to do is take our full page ads in about 100 of the biggest newspapers in the US asking Americans if they want to see American troops in Iraq until 2018. If they don't, ask them to call their Republican Senators and Representatives. If the DSCC and/or the DCCC ran such ads, they would receive a lot of coverage and move this issue up on the media's agenda.

Too often, politicians and their advisers act as if ads on television are the only way to go. A lot of people, however, read the newspapers. You could probably potentially reach 50 million or so readers with such an effort. The cost would be negligible compared to running 30 second tv spots, and you would probably get just as much of an impact. It is time to think outside the box, pun intended.

Iraqi Defense Minister Wants US in Iraq Until 2018

The Iraq Defense Minister said yesterday in Washington that he envisions the US in Iraq until 2018. He doesn't believe that his country will be able to handle internal security until 2009 to 2012 and will not be able to defend its borders until 2018 to 2020. These remarks need to be jumped on by Democratic candidates running for President.

In the past Bubble-Boy has gotten away with mouthing platitudes like "When the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down." Platitudes that were designed to sound tough, but avoid actually telling the American people how long their sons and daughters were expected to be in Iraq. Now, thanks to the honesty of the Iraq Defense Minister, we know what this Administration's plan is for Iraq. Its plan is that American troops stay in Iraq for another decade.

It is time for Democrats to engage the Republicans on this issue. The choice is pretty clear. We can be in Iraq for 10 more years while the Iraqis fight among themselves or we can set deadlines and get out. We can't control what the Iraqis do, we can only control what we do.

If Bubble-Boy and the Duck Hunter would have told the American people back in 2003 that we would lose at least 4,000 American troops in Iraq, spend at least half a trillion dollars, and be tied up in Iraq for 15 years, there is no way that the American public would have supported this war. Of course, we weren't told that. Instead we were told that we had to worry about mushroom clouds over our country.

Right now, according to a recent CBS/New York Times poll, only 3% of Americans would support having large numbers of American troops stay in Iraq longer than five years. Only 10% would support having large numbers of American troops in Iraq for two to five years. Given those numbers, there's no way that Americans will buy into BB's 10 year plan.

Progressive Spends Millions on Naming Rights While Laying Off Workers

Does this make any sense to you? Progressive Insurance announced in November that it was laying off 341 workers, most of them at the company's headquarters in the Cleveland area. Now, in January, the company enters into a deal with the Cleveland Indians whereby it will spend approximately 3.6 million a year for 16 years to have the naming rights to Jacobs Field.

The United States Chamber of Commerce announced this past week that it will spend up to 60 million dollars to try and influence the November elections. Why? Because it is concerned about the populist language being used by Democrats like Edwards and Republicans like Huckabee. By the way, it has no plans to disclose who gives it money to influence U.S. elections or to attack progressive candidates.

So why are talking about these two items in the same article? Because if corporations want to know why populism is increasing in the United States, they only have to look at actions like the ones taken by Progressive Insurance. Americans are coming to the realization that corporations don't consider the best interests of their workers or of the communities they are located in when they do things. They only consider the bottom line. Their motives are usually self-centered. Indeed, considering the fact that they owe their shareholders a duty to increase the values of their shares, that's probably exactly what they should do.

Where we have a problem is when they act as if other actors in the political system shouldn't do the same thing. Workers, when they vote, should take their cue from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and vote for candidates who will act in their self-interest. Act in their self-interest by considering extending medical and parental leave, by increasing the minimum wage, and by coming up with a national health insurance program. After all, what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

Newsletter prepared by:
Medina County Democratic Action Committee
Joyce Kimbler, Treasurer
P.O. Box 1213
Medina, OH 44258
MCDAC Website