Medina County Dem News

(Medina County Democratic Action Committee)

MCDAC Newsletter
January 25, 2008
Joyce V. Kimbler,
Editor

Hang Out With Medina County Dems On Ground Hog's Day

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Celebrate Black History Month in Medina County

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MCDAC Blog Entries for January 18-January 24, 2008

Martin Luther King III Letter to John Edwards

We got this letter from Talking Points Memo and decided it was so great, we had to reproduce it in its entirety. It speaks for itself. Here it is:

Dear Senator Edwards:

It was good meeting with you yesterday and discussing my father's legacy. On the day when the nation will honor my father, I wanted to follow up with a personal note.

There has been, and will continue to be, a lot of back and forth in the political arena over my father's legacy. It is a commentary on the breadth and depth of his impact that so many people want to claim his legacy. I am concerned that we do not blur the lines and obscure the truth about what he stood for: speaking up for justice for those who have no voice.

I appreciate that on the major issues of health care, the environment, and the economy, you have framed the issues for what they are -- a struggle for justice. And, you have almost single-handedly made poverty an issue in this election.

You know as well as anyone that the 37 million people living in poverty have no voice in our system. They don't have lobbyists in Washington and they don't get to go to lunch with members of Congress. Speaking up for them is not politically convenient. But, it is the right thing to do.

I am disturbed by how little attention the topic of economic justice has received during this campaign. I want to challenge all candidates to follow your lead, and speak up loudly and forcefully on the issue of economic justice in America.

From our conversation yesterday, I know this is personal for you. I know you know what it means to come from nothing. I know you know what it means to get the opportunities you need to build a better life. And, I know you know that injustice is alive and well in America, because millions of people will never get the same opportunities you had.

I believe that now, more than ever, we need a leader who wakes up every morning with the knowledge of that injustice in the forefront of their minds, and who knows that when we commit ourselves to a cause as a nation, we can make major strides in our own lifetimes. My father was not driven by an illusory vision of a perfect society. He was driven by the certain knowledge that when people of good faith and strong principles commit to making things better, we can change hearts, we can change minds, and we can change lives.

So, I urge you: keep going. Ignore the pundits, who think this is a horserace, not a fight for justice. My dad was a fighter. As a friend and a believer in my father's words that injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere, I say to you: keep going. Keep fighting. My father would be proud.

Sincerely,

Martin L. King, III

Call it "The Iraq Recession"

Think Progress has an entry up on its blog that points out that economists were predicting that if the Iraq War caused the price of oil to go up, or caused a shortfall in production, the United States was at risk for a recession. Of course, as can be seen from the increase of the price of oil since 2002, both events have happened.

Although the Bush Administration wants to deny the connection, there is no reason why Democrats should let them. There is a suggestion in the comments to the Think Progress blog entry that Democrats and progressives should refer to any recession as the "The Iraq Recession."

This is a great idea because in one phrase it ties together two issues, Iraq and the economy, that are concerning voters. They are, of course, the two issues that will ensure a Democratic victory in the 2008 presidential race.

One thing that Republicans have been better at than Democrats is "branding". Their skill in this is seen both in the positive sense of using branding to explain their policies and in the negative sense of using branding to attack their opponents. This Republican superiority in branding is related to their better use of emotion in political advertising, according to Dr. Drew Westin, author of The Political Brain.

It is past time to return the favor and the target-rich environment of the diaster that has been the Bush Administration gives Democrats a lot of opportunities.

If Obama Can't Take Heat from the Clintons, How is he Going to Stand Up to Republicans?

Here is an article from the Washington Post about how some in the Democratic Party are queasy about the campaign that is being waged for the Democratic nomination. The article states that people are upset with the Clintons because they fear that the campaign could divide Democrats in November. (Ironically one of the people supposedly concerned is Ted Kennedy, who divided the Party in 1980 by challenging Jimmy Carter, but that's a whole another story.) Although both sides have accused each other of misrepresenting their candidate's respective positions, the article's thrust is aimed at the Clintons.

Look, we are concerned about the increasingly bitter tone of this contest. We undertand that when there is little difference between the candidates on issues, each side is going to look for an edge, no matter how small. We also understand that the Clintons are upset that African-American voters who stood behind Bill Clinton in his presidential campaigns are abandoning the 2008 Clinton campaign for Obama. We also understand that supporters of Barack Obama are so impressed by his personality that they can't understand why the Democratic Party just doesn't give him the nomination by acclamation. But, here's our question: If Barack Obama can't take the heat from the Clintons, how is he going to stand up to the Republicans this fall?

Does anyone really think that the Republicans aren't going to attempt to divide Americans along racial lines if he is the Democratic nominee? Come on, this is the Party who has been winning elections since 1968 because of white Southerners leaving the Democratic Party after the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. This party practically invented dividing Americans along racial lines.

And it is not only race that they will use. We understand that Obama's supporters believe that his drug use as a young man should be off limits, especially since the media gave Bubble-Boy a free pass on his alleged drug use in college and beyond. But do his supporters really think that the Republicans are going to play fair in the fall?

The Clintons can take a punch and they can deliver a punch. What Democrats need to know is whether Obama can do the same. This campaign will tell us what Obama is made of and how he reacts under pressure. It is important to know that because Democrats who think that the Clinton campaign against Obama is like Karl Rove's either suffer from amnesia or are terribly naive.

Iraq War Cost Keeps Going Up and Up

There is a new report out by the Congressional Budget Office that shows that the cost of the Iraq War rose sharply in 2007. This is from the Reuters article:
War funding, which averaged about $93 billion a year from 2003 through 2005, rose to $120 billion in 2006 and $171 billion in 2007 and President George W. Bush has asked for $193 billion in 2008, the nonpartisan office wrote.

The cost of this war is not being borne by Americans in the form of tax increases or cutbacks in government spending. Bush and his Republican allies in Congress have ruled out tax increases. It is being financed by borrowing and passing the cost on to future generations of taxpayers. When George W. Bush took office, the country was running a surplus, now it is running a deficit projected this year to reach 250 billion dollars.

Meanswhile the Federal Debt has gone from around four trillion dollars to over 9 trillion dollars. A lot of this is owned by foreign entities which are controlled by foreign governments, like the Chinese.

None of this seems to worry "Bubble-Boy" and his Republican allies since they think that they won't pay any political price for supporting these idiotic policies. Let's try to disabuse them of this notion in November.

"Most people would rather go to a movie that has a plot."

The title of this entry is a line from an article on Huffington Post by Tom Edsall titled "Will the GOP Blindside the Democrats on Terror Issues?". He is quoting Brian Katulis, who Edsall describes as "a less well known figure in the Democratic foreign policy establishment who is a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress where he is a Senior Advisor to the Center's Middle East Progress project".

Katulis's point is a good one and is applicable to national, state, and local campaigns. Too often local candidates run for office by putting out a list of what they think are important issues with no attempt to connect the issues into a coherent story line. They do this because they assume that most voters are as interested in politics as they are. It is this interest, after all, that propels the candidate into the race.

Well, here's a news flash: Most voters are a lot more interested in their lives, in their families, in their jobs, than they will ever be in politics. Most people aren't that interested in politics, at least not as interested as those who run for office, or, for that matter, who read blogs like this one. Most people want a movie with a plot.

So, if you are a candidate for a local office this year, take Katulis's advice and give the voters a movie with a plot. Give them a coherent narrative. Something this is easy to remember. Don't just give them a list of issues you think are important and expect them to remember your name.

Could Obama Bust Open the Old Confederacy for Dems?

Since 1964, no Democratic candidate has won the presidency without winning at least some of the states of the Old Confederacy. Johnson, Carter in 1980, and Clinton in both 1992 and 1996 won at least some of the 11 states that made up the Confederate States of America. The thinking has always been that only a southern white could win such states, but a look at the demographics of southern states as set forth at www.census.gov show that maybe Obama could change that thinking.

As this page at the Census Bureau's website shows, there are six states in the South where Afro-Americans make up more than 25% of the population. They are Mississippi, Maryland, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama. Five of those states were in the CSA, while Maryland, although it flirted with secession, was not. In Mississippi the percentate of Afro-Americans is 37.4% of the total population.

It would seem logical that Afro-Americans in the South would come out and vote heavy for Obama. His candidacy could spur huge voter registration drives in the South. Much more than Clinton or Edwards, he could make a difference in Southern voting. If nothing else, his candidacy would force the Republicans to campaign in Southern states and spend money in those states.

We aren't saying that this will happen, only that it could happen. While it is not a reason in and of itself to support Barack Obama, it is certainly something to think about.

Why Edwards Should Continue

If you are a reader of this blog, you know that we tend to favor John Edwards as the Democratic nominee. Frankly this is because we are much more economically liberal than socially liberal. We are concerned about issues such as the minimum wage, allowing workers to organize, workplace safety, the influence of corporations on the political process, the availability of higher education for working class familiies, and the growing income inequality in America. We believe that John Edwards is the best candidate to both win the nomination and advance action on those issues. Having said that, however, we could easily support either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. We also believe that any of the three leading Democratic candidates is better than any of the Republicans candidates on those issues.

Which brings us to the point of this blog entry. (We know that you have been patiently waiting for us to get to the point, but felt we had to make the above disclosure.) According to CNN's Election Central, there have only been elected delegates awarded for Iowa and New Hampshire since the DNC stripped Michigan and Florida of their delegates. Of those elected delegates, John Edwards has obtained 26.8% of those delegates elected. This is because there are no winner take all Democratic primaries or caucuses. As long as a candidate gets 15% of the vote, he or she gets delegates.

There are 4050 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Approximately 790 of them are not elected, but the rest seem to be elected delegates. This means that there are approximately 3250 elected delegates. Fifteen percent of that number is 488, and 25% of that number would be 813. (In both calculations we have rounded off to the next higher number.) Clearly such a number would be significant block of votes and would allow Edwards to have an impact on both the nominee and the party platform.

Of course, given the propensity of the media to cover the horse race aspect of the nomination struggle, it will be hard for Edwards to get coverage for his campaign as the number of primaries increase, and he may effectively run out of money. If, however, he can continue, then a vote for Edwards in the Ohio March primary may not be a wasted vote if you care about his issues.

Washington Post Writer Lists Ohio's 16Th Congressional District as Most Likely House Seat to Change Hands

If you read the Washington Post on a regular basis, you will know that there is a Post writer,Chris Cillizza, who has a regular blog called "The Fix." He covers all kind of political races. This is how he describes his blog:
Welcome to The Fix, a new washingtonpost.com blog that aims to serve as a one-stop shop for political junkies in Washington and the wider world.

One of his regular items is called "The Line." In that part of his blog he lists the top ten races for the House, the Senate, and for governors of various states, that have the potential to change from one party to the other. In the most recent line for House seats, Cillizza ranks Ohio's 16Th Congressional District as the most likely seat to change. The Democratic nominee in that race is John Boccieri, who is currently an Ohio State Senator.

This ranking is good news for John's candidacy because it is the kind of thing that is read by Washington insiders. Such insiders can help John raise money and raising money makes the job of winning the November election a lot easier. Republicans will fight like hell to hold this seat, so if you can sign up to help John or contribute to his campaign, it would certainly be appreciated. Here is his website: http://www.johnforcongress.com/

How HIllary Clinton Won Nevada

CNN conducted an entrance poll where they polled Nevada voters as they went into the caucuses. The poll, which can be viewed by clicking on the above link, shows that Clinton beat Obama by taking women voters 51% to 38%; by taking voters 45 and older; by taking Democrats 51% to 39%; by taking white voters 52% to 34% and Latino voters 64% to 26%; by taking voters who cared most about the economy 49% to 40%; and by taking voters who cared most about health care 51% to 39%.

Interestingly Clinton also did well among voters who thought the debate conducted this last week was either very important or somewhat important. Among the first group, Clinton won 53% to 41%. Among the second group, Clinton won 48% to 37%. Most observers thought that Clinton had a good showing in that debate and it appears that Nevada voters agreed with them.

If you add in Edwards total to Clinton's total among white voters Obama only got 34% of white voters. This is obviously worse than he did in either Iowa or New Hampshire. In Nevada whites made up 65% of the vote and Afro-Americans and Latinos made up 15% of the vote each. In New Hampshire and Iowa whites made up a bigger percentage of the vote, yet Obama did better. Why?

One reason might be that Nevada is hurting economically. While Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing, if not the fastest growing, metropolitan area in the U.S., Nevada now leads the country in foreclosures. The percentage of caucus participants who thought the economy was the number one issue facing the country was 50%. The percentage who thought that about Iraq was 22% and the percentage who picked health care as the most important issue was 23%. Thus 73% of voters picked issues that, according to the CNN poll, favored Clinton over Obama.

Right now Clinton is trailing Obama in South Carolina polls by anywhere from 7% to 13%, according to polls reported on Talking Points Memo. Both Clinton and Obama are picking up some support while Edwards's support in going down. If Nevada is any guide, Clinton will pick up the white voters backing Edwards while Obama will pick up the Afro-American voters backing Edwards. If Edwards continues his downward slide when the voting starts, Obama will win, but it will be closer than the current polls indicate.

Inside Look at the Clinton Ground Campaign in Nevada

Huffington Post has an article up about the Clinton ground campaign in Nevada. The ground campaign started about a year ago and involved volunteers talking with voters and recruiting potential volunteers. The article makes several good points. One is that good organization tends to be ignored by the media because they can't see it and its effects aren't known until the end of the campaign. Another point is that ground campaigns tend to be organized and run by relatively young volunteers because it is physically and emotionally and it helps if you don't have a family and/or a full time job stressing you out in addition to the campaign work.

According to the writer of the article these were the goals of the Clinton campaign:

The purpose of the organization Mook was building was to accomplish a very specific string of results: (1) Recruit a competent and dedicated leader for every precinct; (2) Test those leaders to make sure they are capable of recruiting and leading other caucus goers; (3) ID and turn out as many Clinton supporters to caucus as possible; and (4) Train precinct leaders to make sure they know how to lead their caucus attendees on the big day.

Quite frankly that should be the goal of every Democratic county party in Ohio. Find dedicated precinct leaders; train them and test them to make sure they know what they are doing; identify voters who will vote Democratic in their precincts; and make sure those voters vote on election day. Too often precinct committee persons positions have been treated as if their sole function was to elect the county chair and governing committee. Consequently in many counties Democratic candidates are on their own when it comes to building a grassroots structure and in every election cycle the work has to start all over again. Folks, that is no way to run a railroad.

If you are interested in grassroots organization, check out this article. If you are involved in a successful grassroots organization, let us know how your organization works. You can email us at webmaster@medinacountydemocraticactioncommittee.org.

Do You Evangelize for the Democratic Party?

At church on Saturday evening, one of our ministers talked about the origins of the word "evangelical." Although most often used in the media to refer to a person who believes in a certain view of Christianity, it derives from the verb "evangelize." According to www.translationdirectory.com, the word "evangelize" means to "To explain ones beliefs to another in the hope that they might wish to adopt them. The word is sometimes used as a synonym for "Proselytize" - to actively attempt to convert another person to your beliefs.".

That got me thinking, are most Democrats evangelizing for the Democratic Party? Are we explaining our beliefs in such a way that others would want to adopt them? Or are too often assuming that most people have already decided what they believe politically and there is nothing we can do to change their minds?

One of the strengths of evangelical Christians is that they are sure of what they believe. This allows them to self-confidentally explain their beliefs to others. Too often, by contrast, Democrats, especially those of us who live in "red" counties don't exhibit that same kind of self-confidence.

Which is too bad, because we have a lot to be self-confident about in terms of political philosophy. We don't believe in dividing people along racial, religious, economic, sexual orientation, or gender lines. We don't believe that some Americans are more worthy than other Americans. We do believe that government has the obligation to conduct itself in such a way as to allow all Americans the opportunity to improve their lives. We don't favor a government that only concerns itself with the rich and only tries to advance the agenda of corporations.

We should be evangelizing on behalf of the Democratic Party be telling our relatives, friends, neighbors, and/or co-workers about what we believe and why we believe it. I am not suggesting that we be obnoxious about our evangelizing, but that we should have the self-confidence to tell people why we are Democrats.

Former Bush Aides Plan $250 Million Dollar Political Action Committee Targeting Liberals and Democrats

FreedomWatch.org, which, according to this Washington Post article, has Ari Fleischer as its spokesman, is aiming to raise $250,000,000.00 to influence the 2008 political campaigns. It has already made its influence felt in northwest Ohio when it got involved in the special election won by Representative Del Latta. This group is being billed as the conservative answer to MoveOn.org.

The funding of this group is particularly interesting. According to the Post article, one of its main benefactors is Sheldon G. Adelson, a Las Vegas casino executive who last year pledged an unprecedented $200 million to Jewish and Israeli causes. He is joined by others who support Bush's policies in the Middle East, particularly with respect to Iran and Iraq. This is how the Post describes the origins of this FreedomWatch.org: The organization was conceived at a Florida meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition last spring with the initial aim of defending Bush's policies in Iraq and Iran. According to the Post, these are the people running the organzation: Ari Fleischer, a former Bush press secretary and a Freedom's Watch founder. The other organizers are Bradley A. Blakeman, another former Bush White House official, and Mel Sembler, a Florida strip-mall magnate who served as Bush's ambassador to Italy.

Of course, their support isn't confined to just foreign policy, as the ads they ran against Robin Weirauch show. This is how the Post described the group's ads against Weirauch: Behind a blood-red foreground, the group's ad showed Latinos hurrying under fences and being frisked by police as a narrator accused Democratic candidate Robin Weirauch and "liberals in Congress" of supporting free health care for illegal immigrants

This is the same stuff we have been getting from the Republican Party and its supporters for years. Find a hot button issue, such as immigration, that can be used to get votes from working class voters, predominantly white, and then get wealthy poeple interested in other issues, such as taxation, or in this case, supporting Israel in the Mideast, to funds ads exploiting those issues. Of course, the pay-off for the working class voters never comes and the conservatives elected not only vote against illeagal immigration, but also against workplace safety, raising the mimimum wage, against regulating corporations and for obscene tax cuts for the rich.

Democrats Need Both Black and White Voters to Win

According to the Census Bureau, the United States population breaks down racially in the following percentages: White-73.9%; African-American-12.4%; Asian-4.4%; Native Americans-0.8%; Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander-0.1%; Some other race-6.3%;Hispanic/Latino-14.8%; and Two or more races-2.0%. This means that in order for Barack Obama to get elected he will have to get votes from millions of Americans who consider themselves "white" when asked their race.

Conversely, in order for Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or any other white Democratic nominee to win the presidency,they have to get votes from millions of African-American voters. In 2004, John Kerry lost both the white male and the white female vote. He ran 25 points behind George W. Bush among white males and 11 points behind Bush among white females. The only reason why he carried 17 states and Washington, D.C. was because he carried non-white males by 37% and non-white females by 51%.

The above figures show why the tone of the race between Obama and Clinton is so distressing. When Democrats win, they usually win by getting around 49% or 51% of the popular vote. The only Democrat since Roosevelt to blow out a Republican was LBJ in 1964. He had the advantage of the Republicans nominating a candidate who was too far to the right for most Americans. Also, the Democratic Party coalition that FDR put together was just starting to come apart so the Democrats were stronger internally than they have been since 1964.

The Democrats have a great opportunity to put together a new governing coalition in America, one that will include Hispanics, African-American votes, white women, and white men, especially those in trade unions. The current tone of the 2008, though, could make putting that coalition together much tougher. As Rodney King famously once said, "Can't we all just get along?"

The reason why that advice is so crucial for Democrats is that if we don't find a way to get along we are going to end up with another four years of a conservative Republican. America, and the world, can't afford to take that risk.

Send us Your Thoughts, Comments, Reactions

Send your thougths, comments, reactions, links to articles, and/or letters to our editor at joycekimbler@medinacountydemocraticactioncommittee.org.

Newsletter prepared by:
Medina County Democratic Action Committee
Joyce Kimbler, Treasurer
P.O. Box 1213
Medina, OH 44258
MCDAC Website