'Ohio is ground zero' in critical House battles

Washington- Mary Jo Kilroy has her pitch down pat. Sitting in a Washington restaurant, wearing a dark pinstripe suit and a serious expression, the 56-year-old Democratic pol from Columbus calmly explains why she thinks she can knock out one of the most powerful Republicans in Congress.

First, she says, Ohioans are sick of Republicans' "appalling record of political corruption" and eager to send a message "that it's time for a change." Second, she says, she has the muscle and the message to beat Rep. Deborah Pryce, who ranks fourth in the House GOP leadership.

Kilroy's proof: She has beaten tough opponents before, her district is tilting increasingly Democratic, and she plans to paint Pryce as a "rubber stamp" supporter of President Bush who is too conservative for the district.

Kilroy, a two-term Franklin County commissioner, is hardly a celebrity even in Ohio, her home state. But her decision to take on Pryce, of Columbus, has made her a darling of Washington Democrats desperate to end Republicans' 12-year House reign.

Buoyed by Bush's weak poll ratings and a series of GOP scandals, Democrats are banking heavily not only on Kilroy but also on other Ohio Democrats to help them gain the 15 seats they need to retake control.

"Ohio is ground zero," says Adrienne Elrod, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Amy Walter, a political analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, says Ohio is important to both parties this year because five of its 18 House races could be close -- an unusually high number. Three of those five seats are now in GOP hands.

"If Democrats are going to be successful," says Walter, "they need to win some seats in Ohio."

Republicans acknowledge that Ohio's political climate poses a challenge for GOP incumbents both because of the state's lagging economy and because of the scandal involving GOP fund-raiser Tom Noe that has tarnished Gov. Bob Taft and other Republicans.

But Republicans are hardly ready to concede any losses in Ohio. They say Ohio Democrats have had their own problems lately -- from the failure to persuade Iraq veteran Paul Hackett to run again for a Cincinnati-area House seat he nearly won last year, to the embarrassment of seeing a top Democratic candidate in southern Ohio fail to collect enough valid signatures to get his name on the ballot.

"The atmospherics are not great for Republicans right now," says Ed Patru, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "But the Democratic Party in Ohio has nothing to crow about. They're pretty disorganized themselves."

Of the three Republican-held Ohio seats that Democrats are giving the most attention, the biggest coup would be a defeat of Pryce, who hasn't faced a tough challenge since her first House race in 1992. Pryce acknowledges she is confronting a race that is "a little different than what I've faced in the past" and that "it's not a good environment" for Republicans. But she says Kilroy will have a hard time tying her to scandals or painting her as a knee-jerk Bush backer.

"I differ with the president over very basic things like the right to choose, stem-cell research, the Dubai ports," she says.

Pryce, who supports abortion rights, says she will paint Kilroy as "a very extreme liberal," while describing herself as the most moderate member of the GOP leadership.

Democrats also are hoping to topple another longtime incumbent, Cincinnati Rep. Steve Chabot, whose district -- like Pryce's -- is closely divided between Democrats and Republicans. Chabot, first elected in 1994, has a conservative voting record.

Though he easily won re-election in 2004 and 2002, Chabot drew only 53 percent of the vote in 2000 against John Cranley, a young Harvard-educated attorney who at the time was little known. Cranley has since been elected three times to the Cincinnati City Council and is going for a rematch against Chabot this year.

"He's a top-notch candidate," says Elrod at the Democratic campaign committee. "We're very excited about him."

Democrats' most highly publicized target in Ohio is Rep. Bob Ney of Licking County, who ordinarily would be considered a safe bet for re-election because he has been popular in a district that is solidly Republican. However, Ney has come under heavy scrutiny in the scandal involving GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who pleaded guilty in January to corruption charges. Federal investigators are looking into allegations that Ney took bribes from Abramoff.

Ney, who says he is innocent, has vowed to stay in the race even if he is indicted. Democrats failed to lure a big-name candidate to oppose him but say they are confident that Ney could be toppled by either of the two best-known Democrats running in the May 2 primary: Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer or Dover Law Director Zack Space.

While Republicans will be defending Ney, Pryce and Chabot, Democrats also will have to play some defense before they can exploit Ohio's sour political climate. Democrats need to hold two seats being vacated by incumbents -- Rep. Sherrod Brown's in Northeast Ohio and Rep. Ted Strickland's in southeast Ohio. Brown is running for U.S. Senate and Strickland for Ohio governor.

The biggest risk for Democrats is losing Strickland's seat. Party leaders were mortified when State Sen. Charlie Wilson, an anti-abortion, pro-gun candidate whom they bill as a perfect fit for his culturally conservative district, failed to get the 50 valid signatures needed to get on the primary ballot. Wilson is waging a write-in campaign to win the nomination, using money he had hoped to save for a general-election fight against State Rep. Chuck Blasdel, the likely GOP candidate.

In the wake of the fiasco, Republicans are calling the race their No. 1 target in the nation and are hinting that they are prepared to spend millions for Blasdel. One sign of their support was an appearance Monday by Vice President Dick Cheney at a fund-raiser for Blasdel in Hanoverton.

Patru, at the Republican campaign committee, says his party will air as many commercials as it needs to undermine Wilson if he gets on the ballot.

"We're going to saturate that market to the point where Charlie Wilson is embarrassed to show his face in public," he says.

Wilson's campaign manager, Jason Burke, says he is confident that Wilson's write-in bid will succeed and that Democrats will hold the seat. Burke dismisses the GOP talk as "bluster" and calls Blasdel a "lightweight."

If Wilson doesn't get on the ballot, says Walter of the Cook Political Report, Democrats can kiss the seat goodbye.

Democrats also could have headaches in Brown's district, which includes parts of Lorain, Summit, Cuyahoga and Medina counties. Though it is solidly Democratic, Republicans say their hopes of winning grew when they recruited Craig Foltin, the GOP mayor of heavily Democratic Lorain, for the race.

Meanwhile, several Democrats are battling it out in the primary, and no one seems sure who will win. The candidate likely to spend the most, Youngstown shopping mall heiress Capri Cafaro, is considered vulnerable in a general election. So analysts are offering few predictions.

"This thing can be sliced and diced about a million different ways," says Walter.

To reach this Plain Dealer reporter:

eauster@plaind.com, 216-999-4212