NY Times - Early intensity underscores role of races in Ohio

(The New York Times)

May 7, 2006
Early Intensity Underlines Role of Races in Ohio

By ADAM NAGOURNEY and IAN URBINA

COLUMBUS, Ohio, May 6 — For the Democratic Party, the road back to power in
Washington begins here in Ohio. But as long-dominant Ohio Republicans
struggle with a corruption scandal, economic distress and rising voter
unease, Democrats face a challenge in making the state a launching pad to
seize control of Congress and the White House, leaders of both parties say.

As Ohio turned from the primaries last Tuesday to its competitive thicket of
contests this fall, party officials and analysts said one of the Democrats'
most alluring targets, Senator Mike DeWine, seemed less vulnerable than he
had earlier this year.

And Democrats said that while they were hopeful they would be able to elect
the first Democratic governor in 16 years — filling the seat of Bob Taft,
who is leaving office after a corruption scandal involving thousands in
unreported gifts — the fight will not be easy.

The intensity of political activity here underlies Ohio's status as the most
contested political battleground in the nation, where nearly all of the
forces that are shaping American politics today are on display.

Currently, Republicans control the governor's mansion and both houses of the
legislature. The two United States senators are Republican, and the party
has a 12-to-6 edge in the Congressional delegation. And President Bush won
Ohio in 2000 and 2004, in both cases helping tip the balance for his
victories.

Nevertheless, Democrats hope to make substantial gains here in November
because of mounting displeasure with Mr. Bush over the economy, the war in
Iraq and the general direction of the country, and distress with the
Republican leadership in the state.

In one welcome turn for Democrats, two Republican members of Congress are
vulnerable, victims of the curdled political environment, analysts said. But
Democratic hopes of knocking out a third Republican, Representative Bob Ney,
who has been linked to the Jack Abramoff corruption investigation, were set
back when the Democrats' favored candidate, Mayor Joe Sulzer of Chillicothe,
lost to a lesser-known and politically inexperienced challenger, Zack Space.

Further, those potential gains could be offset if Democrats fail to hold two
Democratic seats that opened up when Representative Sherrod Brown decided to
run for the Senate and Representative Ted Strickland entered the race for
governor. "The fall election is not going to be a cakewalk," said State
Senator Charlie Wilson, the Democratic candidate to succeed Mr. Strickland.

Nonetheless, Republicans are in as bad shape in Ohio as they are in anyplace
in the United States, presenting the Democrats with their best opportunity
this year. The major question is whether Democrats will be able to emerge
from Ohio with incremental gains, or the kind of sweeping victories that
could produce long-lasting changes in the national political landscape.

Of the 18 Ohio Congressional districts, five seats are considered in play.

Ideally, Democratic Party leaders said, they will gain at least three
Congressional seats in Ohio — Democrats need 15 nationally to take back the
House — along with a Senate seat and the governorship.

In many ways, the political environment here mirrors the national one, with
its brew of economic anxiety, corruption and voter weariness with one-party
dominance. Beyond corruption and worry about Iraq, the contests in Ohio are
shaping up as a face-off between two powerful forces in American politics:
economic issues, lead by job loss, trade and health care worries; and social
issues, notably abortion, same-sex marriage and gun control.

The Ohio Democratic chairman, Chris Redfern, said in an interview that
national Democrats needed to "focus on the governor's race above all" to lay
the groundwork for the 2008 presidential election and suggested that this
was where the party had its best hope of success.

But Mr. Redfern warned that Mr. Strickland's contest with J. Kenneth
Blackwell, the hard-hitting Ohio secretary of state, could prove tougher
than many Washington Democrats think.

"I'm cautiously optimistic about the governor's race, but I also really
think this is going to be much more difficult than Democrats believe it will
be," Mr. Redfern said. "Huge resources will be poured into this race, and
Ken Blackwell is going to come at Congressman Strickland with rhetoric that
will be totally unlike anything we've ever seen."

There is no party registration in Ohio, but 40 percent of voters in 2004
said they were Republican, compared with 35 percent who said they were
Democrat, according to a survey of people leaving the polls. Conservative
Christians, who make up an estimated quarter of the voting population in the
state, proved critical to Mr. Bush's 120,0000-vote victory here in 2004.

With seven highly-charged races being played against the ever-present
backdrop of past and future presidential races, parts of Ohio are in the
grip of the kind of political fury normally not seen until the final days of
a campaign, with all the social and political cleavages on full display.

On Thursday, Mr. Blackwell — a leading advocate of the state ban on same-sex
marriage who opposes abortion in every instance, including to save the life
of the pregnant woman — led a crowd in prayer at an outdoor National Day of
Prayer vigil. As the crowd bowed its head and murmured chants of "Thank you,
Jesus" in a light spring drizzle, Mr. Blackwell was forced to raise his
voice to be heard over the din of banging pots and pans and chants by
workers who had been forced out of their jobs demonstrating across High
Street.

The Democratic campaign to unseat Senator DeWine has been pivotal to the
party's ambition for capturing the Senate. But those hopes have been
dampened as Republicans began a barrage of attacks on Mr. Brown's positions
on taxes, military appropriations and social issues. The attacks have been
pressed by Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's chief political adviser, who flew here last
month to urge the mild-mannered Mr. DeWine to adopt the strategy to avoid
defeat, Ohio Republicans said.

Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, the head of the Republican Senate
campaign committee, said attacks on Mr. Brown's ideology would compensate
for what she acknowledged was a difficult atmosphere for Republicans.

Mr. Brown is considered one of the more liberal members of the state's
Congressional delegation; he supports abortion rights, opposed the
constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage and voted against the
war in Iraq.

"Sherrod Brown is out of the mainstream," Mrs. Dole said. "I don't think his
kind of liberalism will sell across the state. Drawing the contrast is the
key here: it's the choice between the two candidates, despite the
environment."

Mr. DeWine said he would wait until later in the year before drawing such
distinctions himself. "I am in the mainstream of the state, and I don't
think he is," he said. "I'm not going to spend a lot of time, at this point
in the campaign, getting into this. It's a little early."

Mr. Brown, handing out leaflets at a coffee shop in Columbus on Monday, said
Republicans were trying to take attention away from his focus on economic
issues.

"Republicans are going to try to shift attention away from these economic
issues and move the focus to social issues like abortion and gay marriage to
fire up their base, but I don't think its going to work like it did in
2004," he said. "People in Ohio are seeing now how corruption affects their
pocketbook and how gas prices go up when a party corruptly allows oil
companies to set policy, and how Medicare becomes impossible when you allow
the pharmaceutical companies to dictate policy."

Democrats and analysts said here that in the governor's race Mr. Strickland
was less vulnerable to that kind of attack — he opposes gun control and
represents one of the most conservative districts in the state — but Mr.
Blackwell said that would not deter him.

"We will both be asked to defend our positions on abortion, on marriage, on
a whole host of issues, and people will be able to see how he measures up to
their values," Mr. Blackwell said. "Strickland will probably underestimate
and underappreciate the degree to which my vision connects with a broad base
of Ohioans."

Mr. Strickland said he would prefer to talk about economic issues. "That
would be wonderful," he said.

But, he said: "I am prepared to respond to whatever attacks come from him in
these areas. I don't think most people in Ohio believe these are the issues
that are central to the responsibilities of being governor."

State officials estimate that Ohio has lost more than 175,000 manufacturing
jobs in the last decade and the number of adults in the state without health
care has risen by 45 percent; a result is a decidedly anxious electorate
where over 70 percent of respondents in some polls say the state is heading
in the wrong directions.

"Things have really headed downhill in the country between the war and jobs
and all these scandals," said Rachel Jackson, 36, a "diehard Republican"
standing early this week with a group of workers locked out from a truck
parts plant in Jackson.

The political environment here has put two once-safe Republican members of
Congress in jeopardy: Representatives Steve Chabot and Deborah Pryce.

Mrs. Pryce been the target of nearly $100,000 worth of advertisements paid
for by Moveon.org, a liberal group, attacking her for taking money from
pharmaceutical companies. In a sign of White House concern about her
prospects, Laura Bush, the first lady, came here this week to campaign for
her.